Equity Analysis Excel
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Equity Analysis Excel – I’ve been a member of several entrepreneurial teams and used a version of this spreadsheet to help founders decide where to think about equity distribution – usually before a share distribution.
As a founding team or member of a founding team, you want to know what percentage of ownership you have after making employee grants, creating an option plan, and completing several rounds of fundraising. This spreadsheet shows you your ownership percentage every step of the way – as stock/option grants are made and funds are raised.
Equity Analysis Excel
This model allows you to plug in stock grants for your first key employees/consultants. Plug in how much you raised at any valuation and the size of the employee incentive stock option plan to see what happens to your ownership percentage. Although the model is not “protected” (you can change any cell you want), it is color-coded and clearly shows the cells where you need to enter/adjust data.
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There is a “sample” plan that shows how you might distribute equity – but it’s only a starting point to give you ideas for your company.
Recommended ownership percentages for C-level executives, key employees, individual contributors and advisors, along with notes on how to adjust these amounts for founding team members. A valuation spreadsheet is a model of a company’s future performance. This allows you to estimate the current value of the company’s stock. With this information, you can form an opinion on whether a company’s stock is over, under or overvalued.
If you understand the company and are good at predicting the future, you can invest based on your analysis. Chances are, you can make a lot of money.
Don’t really want to know how to create a stock analysis spreadsheet? Just want to use a stock analysis spreadsheet?
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Use the one I mentioned in this post. Download it to Excel and tweak it as you see fit.
Once you’re in the spreadsheet, click File > Make a Copy to edit. I no longer respond to “requests for access”.
On YouTube. These texts have since been removed from the platform. If you want to check them out, follow this link.
Any spreadsheet software will work if you want to follow along. All formulas used should be the same.
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In this tutorial, I will create a stock analysis spreadsheet for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA). This was not a company I was familiar with before creating this example. However, as you go through this exercise you will learn a lot about the company you are analyzing. However, I understand that some of my assumptions may be misinformed. I imagine that over time, if one continues to analyze Tesla and update their model, they will become familiar with the company. Maybe more than most employees!
I only used Tesla as an example in this stock analysis spreadsheet. So to speak, a company to fill the gaps. Admittedly I haven’t “scuttlebutted” enough to fully stand behind my admiration for them.
So, don’t take this as an endorsement of any firm position on the true value of Tesla stock.
I want to add a little formatting to my models. It makes them more readable, in my opinion. You’ll notice that in most of my other spreadsheets, I leave the variables (input) blank and format the field and row names, including formulas. It explains what should (and shouldn’t) change.
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Note that in this walk-through, many numbers are expressed in millions for ease of reading. For example, 179, 127, 239 (
) denoted as 179.1. The same goes for almost all numbers shown in financial statements.
Two words that Martin Shkreli uses often. I haven’t seen these concepts used elsewhere (not to say they don’t exist), but they’re actually pretty intuitive.
There will be $0. why Because if you buy all the shares for $1 billion, you immediately own $1 billion
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. In essence, get a refund of the purchase price. Net money out of your pocket = $0.
. In this case, after you buy the company for $1 billion, you owe another $1 billion.
Valuing a company is based on forecasting for the future. To predict the future, we want to talk about a little history. No, the past does not tell us what will happen in the future. However, this gives us a good starting point.
The accompanying Tesla model was produced in August 2019. Therefore, I went back and represented each quarter through 2017. Q3 and Q4 of 2019 are estimated as results have not been reported.
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In cells C12 and C13, enter “Quarter” and “Year” respectively. Then, enter the corresponding quarter (1-4) and year depending on when you did this analysis and when your company ended its fiscal years and quarters.
Also, for good measure, I recommend freezing the panes below row 13 and to the right of column C. This makes the model easier to read as you scroll down and to the right.
In theory, a company can generate returns forever (in perpetuity). So, you need to calculate the net present value (
However, here are some things to consider. First, you cannot live forever. Not only that, but you might want to reap the rewards of this well-researched investment before you die.
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Another thing to consider, in my opinion, is the so-called Lindy effect. This concept states that the future life span of an object is equal to its age. In essence, the longer a company has been around, the better you can expect it to be in the future.
Such predictions are often wrong. Over fifteen years, you’d have to be Nostradamus for any prayer to be accurate.
However, this does not mean that the income ends after fifteen years. Or, you will not hold this stock for more than fifteen years. So, while the forecasts may end there, you’re still forecasting earnings (usually).
This is called “terminal value”. These earnings may be flat, increase by 1-2% to reflect inflation, or decrease by a few percent to reflect company maturity and decline.
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The call is yours. It is important to include these values because they play an important role in valuation.
Hopefully, you can see the implications of the Lindy effect for a company like Tesla. Almost everyone praises Tesla for its innovation and believes they will forever. The truth is, they are still a young company. They can stay there forever. But, it has to stand the test of time to prove it.
So, according to the Lindy effect, I only predict Tesla’s profits in thirteen years. They were founded in 2003 (thirteen years ago), so that’s how far I’ve come. Needless to say, I didn’t include a terminal value for them.
You may disagree and think that Tesla has been around longer than that. Very good. You can present your model.
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) for the past and its future plan. As with most of the data in this spreadsheet, I suggest that you enter this information in millions – to read.
This area is also a good place to include additional supplementary information. What information to include here depends on the company you are reviewing. You can enter share revenues, active user values, or anything else that helps you estimate total sales.
It’s ultimately the value that counts here, so we put it at the top.
Certainly, the basic components of every company’s financial statement are the same. Revenue, Revenue Expense, Net Income, Assets, Liabilities, etc… However, for this analysis, I recommend breaking it down with the details made by the company in their SEC filings.
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Looking at financial statements in detail helps us understand the company better and make more informed forecasts.
But they may not come back as soon as you need them. They don’t even have the details you need to analyze thoroughly. Every company’s financial statements are presented in the same general manner. It doesn’t matter if they make cars, sell marijuana, or make consumer products.
So, we are left to type this information manually. Exactly what Martin Shkreli recommends. He says it gives you a “feel for the business.”
He was right to an extent. After this, I feel like I have my finger on the pulse of Tesla’s business better than I could if I just imported the numbers.
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It is a time consuming process. Not just typing historical information, but predicting, repeating and predicting (again). The bitch in all of this, above all, is that the effort is futile. Martin himself estimates that only 1 in 10 companies reviewed are worth investing in. So, it seems to me
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